UPDATED Jul. 29, 2024, at 8:27 PM
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Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
KEY
ESTIMATE
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE
Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
| Dates | Samplei SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Sponsor | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Datesi SAMPLE TYPES A ADULTS V VOTERS LV LIKELY VOTERS RV REGISTERED VOTERS | Pollster | Result |
President: general election, 2024AVG.
July 26-28 | 11,538 | RV | July 26-28 11,538RV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Harris | +1 |
July 23-25 | 4,000 | RV | July 23-25 4,000RV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
July 23-25 | 1,000 | RV | July 23-25 1,000RV | The Wall Street Journal | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 49% | 49% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
July 23-25 | 1,000 | RV | July 23-25 1,000RV | The Wall Street Journal | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 44% Kennedy 4% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 44% | Trump | Harris | +1 | ||
45% Harris 44% Trump 4% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 23-25 | 1,980 | RV | July 23-25 1,980RV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 48% Kennedy 5% West 0% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
46% Harris 48% Trump 5% Kennedy 0% West | |||||||||||||||
July 23-25 | 1,980 | RV | July 23-25 1,980RV | Harris | 48% | Harris | 48% | Harris 48% Trump 50% | 50% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
July 23-25 | 1,743 | RV | July 23-25 1,743RV | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 42% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +2 | |||
July 22-25 | 2,472 | LV | July 22-25 2,472LV | Forbes | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 46% Kennedy 8% West 1% Stein 1% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
45% Harris 46% Trump 8% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 22-25 | 3,013 | RV | July 22-25 3,013RV | Forbes | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 44% Kennedy 10% West 1% Stein 1% | 44% | Trump | Even | |||
44% Harris 44% Trump 10% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 22-25 | 2,472 | LV | July 22-25 2,472LV | Forbes | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 47% Kennedy 8% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
45% Harris 47% Trump 8% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 22-25 | 3,013 | RV | July 22-25 3,013RV | Forbes | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 45% Kennedy 11% | 45% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
44% Harris 45% Trump 11% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 22-25 | 2,472 | LV | July 22-25 2,472LV | Forbes | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
July 22-25 | 3,013 | RV | July 22-25 3,013RV | Forbes | Harris | 49% | Harris | 49% | Harris 49% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
July 22-24 | 1,142 | LV | July 22-24 1,142LV | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 43% Kennedy 5% Stein 0% West 0% Oliver 0% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
44% Harris 43% Trump 5% Kennedy 0% Stein 0% West 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 22-24 | 1,142 | RV | July 22-24 1,142RV | Harris | 42% | Harris | 42% | Harris 42% Trump 42% Kennedy 6% Stein 0% West 0% Oliver 0% | 42% | Trump | Even | ||||
42% Harris 42% Trump 6% Kennedy 0% Stein 0% West 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 22-24 | 1,142 | LV | July 22-24 1,142LV | Harris | 47% | Harris | 47% | Harris 47% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
July 22-24 | 1,142 | RV | July 22-24 1,142RV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 48% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
July 22-24 | 5,265 | A | July 22-24 5,265A | The 19th | Harris | 38% | Harris | 38% | Harris 38% Trump 39% Kennedy 6% West 1% Stein 1% | 39% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
38% Harris 39% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 22-24 | 2,137 | RV | July 22-24 2,137RV | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 43% | 43% | Trump | Harris | +1 | |||
July 22-24 | 1,492 | LV | July 22-24 1,492LV | Harris | 43% | Harris | 43% | Harris 43% Trump 44% Kennedy 6% Stein 1% West 1% | 44% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
43% Harris 44% Trump 6% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% West | |||||||||||||||
July 22-24 | 1,687 | RV | July 22-24 1,687RV | Harris | 41% | Harris | 41% | Harris 41% Trump 42% Kennedy 7% Stein 2% West 1% | 42% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
41% Harris 42% Trump 7% Kennedy 2% Stein 1% West | |||||||||||||||
July 22-24 | 2,016 | A | July 22-24 2,016A | Harris | 38% | Harris | 38% | Harris 38% Trump 38% Kennedy 7% Stein 1% West 1% | 38% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
38% Harris 38% Trump 7% Kennedy 1% Stein 1% West | |||||||||||||||
July 22-23 | 1,155 | LV | July 22-23 1,155LV | The Times of London, SAY24 | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 46% Kennedy 4% Stein 1% West 0% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
44% Harris 46% Trump 4% Kennedy 1% Stein 0% West | |||||||||||||||
July 22-23 | 2,000 | RV | July 22-23 2,000RV | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 48% Kennedy 2% | 48% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
46% Harris 48% Trump 2% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 22-23 | 1,018 | RV | July 22-23 1,018RV | Reuters | Harris | 42% | Harris | 42% | Harris 42% Trump 38% Kennedy 8% | 38% | Trump | Harris | +4 | ||
42% Harris 38% Trump 8% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 22-23 | 1,241 | A | July 22-23 1,241A | Reuters | Harris | 37% | Harris | 37% | Harris 37% Trump 34% Kennedy 10% | 34% | Trump | Harris | +3 | ||
37% Harris 34% Trump 10% Kennedy | |||||||||||||||
July 22-23 | 1,018 | RV | July 22-23 1,018RV | Reuters | Harris | 44% | Harris | 44% | Harris 44% Trump 42% | 42% | Trump | Harris | +2 | ||
July 22-23 | 1,241 | A | July 22-23 1,241A | Reuters | Harris | 39% | Harris | 39% | Harris 39% Trump 39% | 39% | Trump | Even | |||
July 21-23 | 1,435 | RV | July 21-23 1,435RV | The Economist | Harris | 41% | Harris | 41% | Harris 41% Trump 44% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% | 44% | Trump | Trump | +3 | ||
41% Harris 44% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein | |||||||||||||||
July 21-23 | 1,000 | LV | July 21-23 1,000LV | Harris | 50% | Harris | 50% | Harris 50% Trump 51% | 51% | Trump | Trump | +1 | |||
July 22 | 1,117 | RV | July 22 1,117RV | NPR, PBS News | Harris | 42% | Harris | 42% | Harris 42% Trump 42% Kennedy 7% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 42% | Trump | Even | |||
42% Harris 42% Trump 7% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 22 | 1,117 | RV | July 22 1,117RV | NPR, PBS News | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +1 | ||
July 21-22 | 4,001 | RV | July 21-22 4,001RV | Harris | 45% | Harris | 45% | Harris 45% Trump 47% | 47% | Trump | Trump | +2 | |||
July 19-22 | 1,178 | RV | July 19-22 1,178RV | Yahoo News | Shapiro | 39% | Shapiro | 39% | Shapiro 39% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +7 | ||
July 19-22 | 1,178 | RV | July 19-22 1,178RV | Yahoo News | Whitmer | 41% | Whitmer | 41% | Whitmer 41% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +5 | ||
July 19-22 | 1,178 | RV | July 19-22 1,178RV | Yahoo News | Newsom | 40% | Newsom | 40% | Newsom 40% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Trump | +6 | ||
July 19-22 | 1,178 | RV | July 19-22 1,178RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 46% | Harris | 46% | Harris 46% Trump 46% | 46% | Trump | Even | |||
July 19-22 | 1,178 | RV | July 19-22 1,178RV | Yahoo News | Harris | 41% | Harris | 41% | Harris 41% Trump 43% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 1% | 43% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
41% Harris 43% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
July 19-22 | 1,115 | RV | July 19-22 1,115RV | Yahoo News | Biden | 45% | Biden | 45% | Biden 45% Trump 45% | 45% | Trump | Even | |||
July 19-22 | 1,178 | RV | July 19-22 1,178RV | Yahoo News | Biden | 41% | Biden | 41% | Biden 41% Trump 43% Kennedy 5% West 1% Stein 1% Oliver 0% | 43% | Trump | Trump | +2 | ||
41% Biden 43% Trump 5% Kennedy 1% West 1% Stein 0% Oliver | |||||||||||||||
avg.
Indicates a polling average for this poll type
Candidate is an incumbent
Partisan types
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The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party.
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Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here.
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Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Polling averages by G. Elliott Morris. Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Andrea Jones-Rooy, Irena Li, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan, Geoffrey Skelley and Julia Wolfe contributed research. Editing by Sarah Frostenson, Nathaniel Rakich, Kaleigh Rogers and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux. Copy editing by Cooper Burton, Holly Fuong, Alex Kimball, Jennifer Mason, Andrew Mangan, Maya Sweedler and Curtis Yee.
